Mapped: the 21 UK seats where Labour could lose Muslim voters over Gaza
A number of pro-Palestine candidates could tap into voter unease over the party’s stance on the conflict with Israel, eroding Muslim support
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Independent candidates in seats with large Muslim populations could cause a potential upset at the general election with voters who feel alienated by Labour’s stance on Gaza. Exclusive polling for Hyphen found that 86% of the 44% of British Muslims who ranked Gaza as one of their top five issues would vote for an independent candidate running on the issue.
The poll also shows that currently a strong majority (63%) of British Muslims will back Labour on 4 July. This number, however, represents a fall in support from 2019 when 86% of British Muslims who voted cast their ballot for the party.
If we look at the top constituencies by proportion of Muslims (using the 2021 census), most are “safe” Labour seats, with the exception of Rochdale, which was won by Workers Party of Britain candidate George Galloway in a by-election in February 2024. A number of boundary changes alter the picture also. Some constituencies have independent candidates standing against each other, while in others they will be competing against the Workers Party and other mainstream parties who have taken a stronger line on the conflict in Gaza, such as the Green party and the Liberal Democrats.
21 UK constituencies with the highest proportion of Muslims
BIRMINGHAM HODGE HILL
62.4% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Liam Byrne, Labour
Notional majority: 12,951
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Boundary changes — new seat is Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
Candidates (Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North)
Labour: Liam Byrne
Conservative: Caroline Clapper
Liberal Democrats: Qasim Esak
Workers Party: James Giles
Green: Imran Khan
Reform UK: Jamie Pullin
BRADFORD WEST
58.7% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Naz Shah, Labour
Notional majority: 27,019
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015 — Labour. 2012 (by-election) — Respect.
2024
Candidates
Liberal Democrats: Imad Uddin Ahmed
Independent: Umar Ghafoor
Reform UK: Jamie Hinton-Wardle
Independent: Akeel Hussain — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Independent: Muhammed Islam — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Green: Khalid Mahmood
Conservative: Nigel Moxon
Labour: Naz Shah
BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN
55.9% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Tahir Ali, Labour
Notional majority: 26,507
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Small boundary changes — new seat is Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley
Candidates (Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley)
Independent: Shakeel Afsar — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Green: Zain Ahmed
Labour: Tahir Ali
Independent: Mohammad Hafeez — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Liberal Democrats: Izzy Knowles
Reform UK: Stephen McBrine
Conservative: Henry Morris
Independent: Babar Raja
BLACKBURN
46% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Kate Hollern, Labour
Notional majority: 18,616
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Labour: Kate Hollern
Independent: Adnan Hussain — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Conservative: Jamie McGowan
Green: Denise Morgan
Workers Party: Craig Murray
Independent: Natasha Shah — standing on a Palestine platform
Reform UK: Tommy Temperley
Liberal Democrats: Adam Waller-Slack
BRADFORD EAST
43.8% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Imran Hussain, Labour
Notional majority: 17,761
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015 — Labour. 2010 — Liberal Democrats.
2024
Candidates
Reform UK: Jacob Pereira Anstey
Yorkshire: Lara Joy Barras
Green: Celia Hickson
Conservative: Aubrey Holt
Labour: Imran Hussain
Liberal Democrats: Robert Michael St John O'Carroll
Independent: Mohammed Sayfur Rahman
Independent: Amer Rehman
Social Democratic Party: Richard Riley
Independent: Talat Sajawal — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
ILFORD SOUTH
43.7% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Sam Tarry (deselected)
Notional majority: 20,409
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Labour: Jas Athwal
Independent: Noor Begum — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Liberal Democrats: Richard Clare
Reform UK: Raj Forhad
Green: Syed Siddiqi
Conservative: Sayeed Syduzzaman
Workers Party: Golam Tipu
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: Andy Walker
BIRMINGHAM LADYWOOD
43% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Shabana Mahmood, Labour
Notional majority: 32,583
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Green: Zoe Challenor
Liberal Democrats: Lee Dargue
Labour: Shabana Mahmood
Conservative: Shazna Muzammil
Independent: Akhmed Yakoob — standing on a Palestine platform
Reform UK: Irene Yoong-Henery
EAST HAM
41.2% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Stephen Timms, Labour
Notional majority: 29,863
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Liberal Democrats: Hillary Briffa
Conservative: Maria Higson
Independent: Tahir Mirza
Reform UK: Dan Oxley
Green: Rosie Pearce
Independent: Sathish Ramadoss
Independent: Anand Sundar
Labour: Stephen Timms
BETHNAL GREEN AND BOW
41.2% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Rushanara Ali, Labour
Notional majority: 31,655
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Boundary changes — new seat is Bethnal Green and Stepney
Candidates (Bethnal Green and Stepney)
Independent: Reggie Adams
Independent: Md Somon Ahmed
Labour: Rushanara Ali
Green: Phoebe Gill
Animal Welfare: Vanessa Hudson
Liberal Democrats: Rabina Khan
Social Democratic Party: Jon Mabbutt
Independent: Ajmal Masroor — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Conservative: Oscar Reaney
Reform UK: Peter Sceats
Independent: Sham Uddin
MANCHESTER GORTON
39% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Afzal Khan, Labour
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Seat abolished and split into Manchester Rusholme and Gorton and Denton.
MANCHESTER RUSHOLME
36.5% Muslim
Incumbent MP: not applicable
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history: not applicable
Candidates
Green: Thirza Asanag-Rae
Independent: Faraz Bhatti
Workers Party: Mohhamed Bilal
Communist League: Peter Clifford
Labour: Afzal Khan
Conservative: Alexandra Marsanu
Reform UK: Joel McGuigan
GORTON AND DENTON
29.6% Muslim
Incumbent MP: not applicable
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history: not applicable
Candidates
Workers Party: Amir Burney
Green: Amanda Gardner
Labour: Andrew Gwynne
Reform UK: Lee Moffitt
Liberal Democrat: John Reid
Conservative: Ruth Welsh
POPLAR AND LIMEHOUSE
38.8% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Apsana Begum, Labour
Notional majority: 22,047
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Labour: Apsana Begum
Green: Nathalie Bienfait
Conservative: Freddie Downing
Liberal Democrats: Richard Flowers
Reform UK: Tony Glover
Independent: Ehteshamul Haque
Workers Party: Kamran Khan
Social Democratic party: Manny Lawal
BIRMINGHAM AND YARDLEY
35.4% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Jess Phillips, Labour
Notional majority: 13,141
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Conservative: Yvonne Clements
Green: Roxanne Green
Liberal Democrats: Roger Harmer
Reform UK: Nora Kamberi
Workers Party: Jody McIntyre
Labour: Jess Phillips
LUTON NORTH
34.3% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Sarah Owen, Labour
Notional majority: 8,740
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Workers Party: Waheed Akbar
Conservative: Jilleane Brown
Reform UK: James Fletcher
Green: Ejel Khan
Labour: Sarah Owen
Liberal Democrats: Sean Prendergast
Independent: Toqueer Shah — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Social Democratic Party: Paul Strathen
OLDHAM WEST AND ROYTON
32.1% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Jim McMahon, Labour
Notional majority: 11,127
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Boundary changes — new seat is Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
Candidates (Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton)
Independent: Zaffar Iqbal — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Liberal Democrats: Hannah Kitching
Conservative: Horatio Lovering
Labour: Jim McMahon
Independent: Raja Miah
Reform UK: David Silbiger
Green: Samsuzzaman Syed
Independent: Tony Wilson — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
LEICESTER SOUTH
32% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Jonathan Ashworth, Labour
Notional majority: 22,023
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Independent: Shockat Adam — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Labour: Jonathan Ashworth
Communist: Ann Green
Reform UK: Craig Harwood
Conservative: Gerri Hickton
Green: Sharmen Rahman
Liberal Democrats: Carol Weaver
Independent: Osman Admani — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Monster Raving Loony: Ezechiel Adlore
BIRMINGHAM PERRY BAR
31.8% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Khalid Mahmood, Labour
Notional majority: 22,325
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Green: Kefentse Dennis
Liberal Democrats: Sabah Hamed
Conservative: Gerri Hickton
Independent: Ayoub Khan — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Reform UK: Akshay Khuttan
Labour: Khalid Mahmood
Independent: Niko Omilana
Socialist Labour: Shangara Singh
BOLTON SOUTH EAST
30.7% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Yasmin Qureshi, Labour
Notional majority: 10,929
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Boundary changes — new seat is Bolton South and Walkden
Candidates (Bolton South and Walkden)
Independent: Don Prof Reis Abraham Halliwell Prf
Conservative: Mohammed Afzal
Liberal Democrats: Gemma-Jane Bowker
Workers Party: Jack Khan
Green: Philip Kochitty
Reform UK: Julie Pattison
Labour: Yasmin Qureshi
ROCHDALE
30.5% Muslim
Incumbent MP: George Galloway, Workers party
Notional majority: 8,109
Voting history: 2024 (by-election) — Workers Party. 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Conservative: Paul Ellison
Workers Party: George Galloway
Reform UK: Michael Howard
Liberal Democrats: Andy Kelly
Green: Martyn Savin
Labour: Paul Waugh
SLOUGH
30.1% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi, Labour
Notional majority: 13,347
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Candidates
Ind. Network: Azhar Chohan — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Independent: Diana Coad
Labour: Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi
Green: Julian Edmonds
Reform UK: Robin Jackson
Conservative: Moni Nanda
Independent: Chandra Muvvala
Workers Party: Adnan Shabbir
Independent: Jaswinder Singh
Heritage: Nick Smith
Liberal Democrats: Chelsea Whyte
LUTON SOUTH
30.1% Muslim
Incumbent MP: Rachel Hopkins, Labour
Notional majority: 6,066
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour
2024
Boundary changes — new seat is Luton South and South Bedfordshire
Candidates (Luton South and South Bedfordshire)
Green: Edward Carpenter
Liberal Democrats: Dominic Griffiths
Labour: Rachel Hopkins
Reform UK: Norman Maclean
Independent: Attiq Malik — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Workers Party: Dr Yasin Rehman
Conservative: Mark Versallion
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