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UK General Election poll — the figures

The first poll of British Muslims during the 2024 election found some surprising — and not so surprising — results. Here are the numbers

Hyphen election poll 2024 muslim vote data charts
As Britons prepare to head to the polls on 4 July, Hyphen and Savanta asked British Muslims about their voting intentions. Photo by Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

The 2024 UK general election campaign is in full flight, which means it’s peak polling season too. While every day brings new results to mull over, only Hyphen and Savanta have specifically polled the voting intentions and priorities of British Muslims, giving us unique insights into how the UK’s Muslim community intends to vote, and why. We also directed the same questions to a sample of the wider UK population and compared the answers. Here are the full results.

Methodology: Savanta interviewed 2,862 respondents in the UK aged 18+ between 24 May and 3 June 2024.  

Voting-related questions were asked to a nationally representative sample of 1,083 UK  Muslim respondents, with the data weighted to be representative of UK Muslims aged 18+ by age, gender, region and ethnicity. Voting intention was also weighted by likelihood to vote.  

Additional questions were asked to a sample of 1,366 nationally representative UK Muslims, with a boost to ensure a sample of 529 18-24 year olds. Data were weighted to be representative of UK Muslims aged 18+ by age, gender, region, and ethnicity. 

A sample of 1,496 nationally representative UK adults was collected to act as a comparison, with a boost to ensure a sample of 527 18-24 year olds. Data were weighted to be representative of the UK population aged 18+ by age, gender, region, ethnicity and religion.  

VOTING INTENTION

If there were a General Election tomorrow to elect MPs to Westminster,  which of the following parties do you think you would vote for or would you vote for another party? Base: All respondents likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (excl. 18-24 boost(Muslim May 2024 N=774; Muslim Nov 2023 N=709) 

The ‘Other’ figure includes Northern Irish parties and Plaid Cymru. 

Savanta previously interviewed 1,032 UK Muslims aged 18+ online on 27 October – 3 November 2023. 

• Labour's lead remains strong among UK Muslims, with the proportion intending to vote  Labour unchanged since autumn 2023 (63% vs. 64% previously).  

• Labour are retaining 77% of their 2019 Muslim voters (down from 84% in the autumn) with 9% now intending to vote Green and 5% intending to vote Liberal Democrat.  However, this effect is counterbalanced by the two in five (39%) 2019 Conservative voters who say they now intend to vote Labour (up from 22% in the autumn).

• The Conservatives' vote share has fallen by 7ppt since our autumn poll, with the Lib  Dems (+3), Green (+2) and Other parties (+2) increasing their vote shares. 

Q1. You mentioned that if there were to be a General Election tomorrow you would vote for PARTY SELECTED. Thinking about previous elections (Westminster and local elections), which of the following best describes your approach to voting for this party? Base: All respondents with a voting intention (excl. 18-24 boost) (Muslim N=753) (Nat Rep = 838)


Q2. You mentioned that if there were to be a General Election tomorrow you would vote for [PARTY SELECTED]. How likely, or unlikely, is it that you'll change your mind between now and when the next election is actually held? Base: All respondents with a voting intention (excl. 18-24 boost) (Muslim N=753) (Nat Rep = 838)


Q3. In which of the following ways, if any, have you engaged in politics in the UK over the last 12 months? All respondents (Muslim N=1,366; Nat Rep N=1,496)


Q4. Which of the following policy issues are most important to you when deciding how to vote at the next General Election? All respondents (Muslim N=1,366; Nat Rep N= 1,496)


Q4b. You mentioned that the Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the most important policy  issues impacting how you vote in the next General Election. If there was a pro-Palestinian, independent candidate standing in your constituency running on the issue of the Israel-Palestine conflict, would you consider voting for this candidate? All respondents who select the Israel-Palestine conflict as an important policy issue to them when deciding how to vote at  the next General Election (Muslim N=620; Nat Rep N=209)


Q5. Thinking ahead to the next General Election, to what extent, if at all, do you think the following groups of people are generally a high or low priority for political parties? All  respondents (Muslim N=1,366; Nat Rep N=1,496)


Q6. Thinking about the main political parties in the UK. To what extent, if at all, do you feel  like they represent your concerns? All respondents (Muslim N=1,366; Nat Rep N=1,496)


Q7. You mentioned that you feel like political parties represent your concerns a lot or a fair amount. Which of the following parties do you feel represent your concerns? Base: All  respondents who say political parties represent their concerns (Muslim N=687; Nat Rep N=590)


Q8. To what extent, if at all, have the following changed under the current government in the UK (i.e. since December 2019)? All respondents (Muslim N=1,366; Nat Rep N=1,496)

Katharine Swindells contributed to reporting.

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