UK Election 2024

Mapped: the 21 UK seats where Labour could lose Muslim voters over Gaza

A number of pro-Palestine candidates could tap into voter unease over the party’s stance on the conflict with Israel, eroding Muslim support

Members of the public pass pro-Palestinian street art in tribute to Palestinian journalists Mohamed Al Masri, Ali Jadallah, Hind Khoudary and Abdulhakim Abu Riash in Ilford on 7th May 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The artwork, which is in two sections, consists of the words 'All Eyes On Gaza' on a Palestinian flag and a painted rendering of a photograph of the four journalists with the words 'Heroes of Palestine' above. It was produced by Creative Debuts, an art platform providing opportunities and support to emerging artists from around the world. (photo by Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images)
The depth of feeling around Labour’s slow-footed stance on Gaza could lose it significant numbers in areas with a large Muslim population. Photo by Mark Kerrison/In Pictures/Getty Images

Independent candidates in seats with large Muslim populations could cause a potential upset at the general election with voters who feel alienated by Labour’s stance on Gaza. Exclusive polling for Hyphen found that 86% of the 44% of British Muslims who ranked Gaza as one of their top five issues would vote for an independent candidate running on the issue.  

The poll also shows that currently a strong majority (63%) of British Muslims will back Labour on 4 July. This number, however, represents a fall in support from 2019 when 86% of British Muslims who voted cast their ballot for the party. 

If we look at the top constituencies by proportion of Muslims (using the 2021 census), most are “safe” Labour seats, with the exception of Rochdale, which was won by Workers Party of Britain candidate George Galloway in a by-election in February 2024. A number of boundary changes alter the picture also. Some constituencies have independent candidates standing against each other, while in others they will be competing against the Workers Party and other mainstream parties who have taken a stronger line on the conflict in Gaza, such as the Green party and the Liberal Democrats.   

21 UK constituencies with the highest proportion of Muslims

BIRMINGHAM HODGE HILL

62.4% Muslim 

Incumbent MP: Liam Byrne, Labour
Notional majority: 12,951 
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Boundary changes — new seat is Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North

Candidates (Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North)
Labour: Liam Byrne    
Conservative: Caroline Clapper    
Liberal Democrats: Qasim Esak    
Workers Party: James Giles    
Green: Imran Khan    
Reform UK: Jamie Pullin

BRADFORD WEST

58.7% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Naz Shah, Labour
Notional majority: 27,019
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015 — Labour. 2012 (by-election) — Respect.

2024

Candidates
Liberal Democrats: Imad Uddin Ahmed
Independent: Umar Ghafoor    
Reform UK: Jamie Hinton-Wardle    
Independent: Akeel Hussain — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Independent: Muhammed Islam — standing on a pro-Palestine platform    
Green: Khalid Mahmood    
Conservative: Nigel Moxon    
Labour: Naz Shah

BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN 

55.9% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Tahir Ali, Labour
Notional majority: 26,507
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Small boundary changes — new seat is Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley

Candidates (Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley)
Independent: Shakeel Afsar — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Green: Zain Ahmed    
Labour: Tahir Ali    
Independent: Mohammad Hafeez — standing on a pro-Palestine platform 
Liberal Democrats: Izzy Knowles    
Reform UK: Stephen McBrine    
Conservative: Henry Morris    
Independent: Babar Raja

BLACKBURN

46% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Kate Hollern, Labour
Notional majority: 18,616
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Candidates
Labour: Kate Hollern    
Independent: Adnan Hussain — standing on a pro-Palestine platform    
Conservative: Jamie McGowan    
Green: Denise Morgan    
Workers Party: Craig Murray    
Independent: Natasha Shah — standing on a Palestine platform
Reform UK: Tommy Temperley    
Liberal Democrats: Adam Waller-Slack

BRADFORD EAST 

43.8% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Imran Hussain, Labour
Notional majority: 17,761
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015 — Labour. 2010 — Liberal Democrats.

2024

Candidates
Reform UK: Jacob Pereira Anstey    
Yorkshire: Lara Joy Barras    
Green: Celia Hickson    
Conservative: Aubrey Holt    
Labour: Imran Hussain    
Liberal Democrats: Robert Michael St John O'Carroll    
Independent: Mohammed Sayfur Rahman    
Independent: Amer Rehman
Social Democratic Party: Richard Riley    
Independent: Talat Sajawal — standing on a pro-Palestine platform 

ILFORD SOUTH

43.7% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Sam Tarry (deselected)
Notional majority: 20,409
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Candidates
Labour: Jas Athwal    
Independent: Noor Begum — standing on a pro-Palestine platform  
Liberal Democrats: Richard Clare    
Reform UK: Raj Forhad    
Green: Syed Siddiqi    
Conservative: Sayeed Syduzzaman    
Workers Party: Golam Tipu    
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: Andy Walker

BIRMINGHAM LADYWOOD

43% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Shabana Mahmood, Labour
Notional majority: 32,583
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Green: Zoe Challenor    
Liberal Democrats: Lee Dargue    
Labour: Shabana Mahmood    
Conservative: Shazna Muzammil    
Independent: Akhmed Yakoob — standing on a Palestine platform     
Reform UK: Irene Yoong-Henery

EAST HAM

41.2% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Stephen Timms, Labour
Notional majority: 29,863
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Candidates
Liberal Democrats: Hillary Briffa    
Conservative: Maria Higson    
Independent: Tahir Mirza    
Reform UK: Dan Oxley    
Green: Rosie Pearce    
Independent: Sathish Ramadoss    
Independent: Anand Sundar    
Labour: Stephen Timms

BETHNAL GREEN AND BOW

41.2% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Rushanara Ali, Labour
Notional majority: 31,655
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Boundary changes — new seat is Bethnal Green and Stepney

Candidates (Bethnal Green and Stepney)
Independent: Reggie Adams    
Independent: Md Somon Ahmed    
Labour: Rushanara Ali    
Green: Phoebe Gill    
Animal Welfare: Vanessa Hudson    
Liberal Democrats: Rabina Khan    
Social Democratic Party: Jon Mabbutt    
Independent: Ajmal Masroor — standing on a pro-Palestine platform      
Conservative: Oscar Reaney    
Reform UK: Peter Sceats    
Independent: Sham Uddin

MANCHESTER GORTON

39% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Afzal Khan, Labour 
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history
: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Seat abolished and split into Manchester Rusholme and Gorton and Denton.

MANCHESTER RUSHOLME

36.5% Muslim

Incumbent MP: not applicable 
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history
: not applicable

Candidates
Green: Thirza Asanag-Rae
Independent: Faraz Bhatti
Workers Party: Mohhamed Bilal
Communist League: Peter Clifford
Labour: Afzal Khan
Conservative: Alexandra Marsanu
Reform UK: Joel McGuigan

GORTON AND DENTON

29.6% Muslim

Incumbent MP: not applicable 
Notional majority: not applicable
Voting history
: not applicable

Candidates
Workers Party: Amir Burney
Green: Amanda Gardner
Labour: Andrew Gwynne
Reform UK: Lee Moffitt
Liberal Democrat: John Reid
Conservative: Ruth Welsh

POPLAR AND LIMEHOUSE

38.8% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Apsana Begum, Labour
Notional majority: 22,047
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Labour: Apsana Begum    
Green: Nathalie Bienfait    
Conservative: Freddie Downing    
Liberal Democrats: Richard Flowers    
Reform UK: Tony Glover    
Independent: Ehteshamul Haque    
Workers Party: Kamran Khan    
Social Democratic party: Manny Lawal

BIRMINGHAM AND YARDLEY

35.4% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Jess Phillips, Labour
Notional majority: 13,141
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Conservative: Yvonne Clements    
Green: Roxanne Green    
Liberal Democrats: Roger Harmer    
Reform UK: Nora Kamberi    
Workers Party: Jody McIntyre    
Labour: Jess Phillips 

LUTON NORTH

34.3% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Sarah Owen, Labour
Notional majority: 8,740
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Workers Party: Waheed Akbar
Conservative: Jilleane Brown    
Reform UK: James Fletcher
Green: Ejel Khan
Labour: Sarah Owen
Liberal Democrats: Sean Prendergast    
Independent: Toqueer Shah — standing on a pro-Palestine platform          
Social Democratic Party: Paul Strathen

OLDHAM WEST AND ROYTON

32.1% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Jim McMahon, Labour
Notional majority: 11,127
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Boundary changes — new seat is Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton

Candidates (Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton)
Independent: Zaffar Iqbal — standing on a pro-Palestine platform        
Liberal Democrats: Hannah Kitching
Conservative: Horatio Lovering    
Labour: Jim McMahon
Independent: Raja Miah 
Reform UK: David Silbiger    
Green: Samsuzzaman Syed
Independent: Tony Wilson — standing on a pro-Palestine platform    

LEICESTER SOUTH

32% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Jonathan Ashworth, Labour
Notional majority: 22,023
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Candidates
Independent: Shockat Adam — standing on a pro-Palestine platform    
Labour: Jonathan Ashworth    
Communist: Ann Green    
Reform UK: Craig Harwood    
Conservative: Gerri Hickton    
Green: Sharmen Rahman    
Liberal Democrats: Carol Weaver    
Independent: Osman Admani — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Monster Raving Loony: Ezechiel Adlore

BIRMINGHAM PERRY BAR

31.8% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Khalid Mahmood, Labour
Notional majority: 22,325
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024 

Candidates
Green: Kefentse Dennis    
Liberal Democrats: Sabah Hamed    
Conservative: Gerri Hickton    
Independent: Ayoub Khan — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Reform UK: Akshay Khuttan    
Labour: Khalid Mahmood    
Independent: Niko Omilana    
Socialist Labour: Shangara Singh

BOLTON SOUTH EAST

30.7% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Yasmin Qureshi, Labour
Notional majority: 10,929
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Boundary changes — new seat is Bolton South and Walkden

Candidates (Bolton South and Walkden)
Independent: Don Prof Reis Abraham Halliwell Prf    
Conservative: Mohammed Afzal    
Liberal Democrats: Gemma-Jane Bowker    
Workers Party: Jack Khan    
Green: Philip Kochitty    
Reform UK: Julie Pattison    
Labour: Yasmin Qureshi

ROCHDALE

30.5% Muslim

Incumbent MP: George Galloway, Workers party
Notional majority: 8,109
Voting history: 2024 (by-election) — Workers Party. 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Conservative: Paul Ellison    
Workers Party: George Galloway    
Reform UK: Michael Howard    
Liberal Democrats: Andy Kelly    
Green: Martyn Savin    
Labour: Paul Waugh

SLOUGH

30.1% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi, Labour
Notional majority: 13,347
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Candidates
Ind. Network: Azhar Chohan — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Independent: Diana Coad    
Labour: Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi
Green: Julian Edmonds
Reform UK: Robin Jackson
Conservative: Moni Nanda
Independent: Chandra Muvvala    
Workers Party: Adnan Shabbir
Independent: Jaswinder Singh    
Heritage: Nick Smith    
Liberal Democrats: Chelsea Whyte

LUTON SOUTH

30.1% Muslim

Incumbent MP: Rachel Hopkins, Labour
Notional majority: 6,066
Voting history: 2019, 2017, 2015, 2010 — Labour

2024

Boundary changes — new seat is Luton South and South Bedfordshire

Candidates (Luton South and South Bedfordshire)
Green: Edward Carpenter
Liberal Democrats: Dominic Griffiths
Labour: Rachel Hopkins
Reform UK: Norman Maclean
Independent: Attiq Malik — standing on a pro-Palestine platform
Workers Party: Dr Yasin Rehman 
Conservative: Mark Versallion

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