A workforce timebomb despite rising numbers — Labour’s migration conundrum
Asylum claims have hit a 46-year high, but health and higher education are suffering as successive governments try to cut immigration by any means
–
Politicians across the spectrum have been promising to reduce net migration for nearly 15 years. And despite their rhetoric, the numbers have continued to grow.
UK immigration figures released this week show that asylum claims, which typically account for a small but significant proportion of overall migration, have reached their highest level since records began in 1979. About 108,000 people applied for asylum last year, marking an 18% increase from 2023. Small boat crossings have also risen by 25% over the past year, though they remain below their peak levels in 2022. These numbers highlight the scale of the challenge facing the government as it attempts to bring migration figures under control.
But they also show something else.
In an effort to reduce net migration quickly, the previous government pulled several policy levers. One of the most significant changes has been a dramatic reduction in the number of visas granted for work, study and family reasons. In total, 460,000 fewer visas were issued compared to the previous year, with the most notable decline seen in the health and care sector. In March 2024, the Conservative government implemented a major policy change: health and care worker visa holders would no longer be allowed to bring dependents with them to the UK. This single measure has led to a steep drop in visa approvals, with 237,000 fewer issued — a 68% decrease.
I have found widespread concern among industry professionals about the potential consequences of this. The care sector has long relied on foreign workers to fill critical staffing gaps — but potential recruits are now reluctant to relocate to the UK if they cannot bring their families, meaning that hospitals, care homes and other facilities are struggling to attract the workforce they desperately need. While ministers have often told me that we should have homegrown workers in these fields, industry insiders say there are more vacancies than people who actually want to do the work and training takes time.
One healthcare executive expressed deep concern about the long-term ramifications of this policy. “The reality is that many of our most dedicated care workers come from overseas, and they simply won’t move here if it means being separated from their families,” they told me.
A similar story is unfolding in higher education. Changes to visa rules for student dependents have led to a sharp drop in approvals, with universities now warning of dire financial consequences. International students, who pay significantly higher tuition fees than domestic students, contribute billions to the UK economy each year. But with restrictions making it harder for them to bring their families both during their period of study and after they graduate, many are reconsidering whether the UK is the right destination.
Speaking to students in Birmingham, I heard first-hand how these changes are affecting their decisions. One student from Pakistan told me they had chosen the UK because of the opportunities to contribute to society, but now had to think about their family. “We are the skilled labour that the UK says it wants,” they said. “But if I can’t build a life here, I have to think about going elsewhere.”
University leaders across the country are sounding the alarm. Many institutions rely heavily on international tuition fees to stay financially stable. If fewer foreign students choose to study in the UK, some universities will face serious financial uncertainty. As one vice-chancellor put it to me: “This is one of the most pressing challenges facing higher education in Britain today.”
Despite these concerns, government officials remain firm in their stance. From their perspective, tightening visa rules is the simplest and most cost-effective way to reduce net migration. Public sentiment appears to support this approach to some extent, but perhaps not as significantly as some may think: a 2023 Kantar poll found that 52% of respondents believed immigration numbers should be reduced, while 30% viewed immigration as a good thing.
Labour, meanwhile, is under increasing pressure to curb small boat crossings, particularly as it faces the electoral challenge posed by Reform UK. For months, Reform UK figures have been telling me they believe the party poses just as much of a threat to Labour as it does to the Conservatives. They see an opportunity to gain ground in Labour-held areas, particularly in constituencies where voters feel frustrated by the government. There are more than 50 Labour seats across the country that Reform UK believes it can challenge for, seats where concerns about immigration and border control are central to the political conversation. One Labour MP in a vulnerable constituency admitted to me that they fear losing their seat if the government fails to make substantial progress in reducing small boat arrivals. “If we don’t get a grip on this, we could be in serious trouble at the next election,” they said.
The images of people risking their lives to get into the UK divide us. Some view small boat crossings as acts of desperation; others believe they should be seen simply as a violation of our borders. It is the latter view that many Labour MPs in Reform target seats fear their constituents have.
As the migration debate continues to dominate headlines, the stakes for Labour are high. Those in affected sectors, bearing the brunt of policy decisions, are calling for a fundamental shift in how immigration is discussed. But such a change seems unlikely in the UK’s current political landscape, and so the quest to get numbers down as quickly as possible remains.
Shehab Khan is an award-winning presenter and political correspondent for ITV News.
Topics
Get the Hyphen weekly
Subscribe to Hyphen’s weekly round-up for insightful reportage, commentary and the latest arts and lifestyle coverage, from across the UK and Europe
This form may not be visible due to adblockers, or JavaScript not being enabled.