Labour MPs warn that Starmer’s government won’t outflank Reform UK by getting tougher on immigration
Both Labour and the Conservative opposition are increasingly aware of the threat posed by Nigel Farage’s party
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“It’s not just the Tories we have our eyes on, we are coming for Labour too.” That was the message a senior figure inside Reform UK shared with me recently and it speaks volumes about the party’s growing ambitions. While the Conservatives have been the primary target of Reform’s rhetoric, Labour is now waking up to the challenge the party could pose in the next general election.
Last time, in 2024, Reform finished second in 98 constituencies. That was already an indication that the party had quite broad appeal and recent analysis, which I mentioned in my Hyphen column last week, by political scientist and GB News commentator Matthew Goodwin suggests that in the next election, of the top 100 seats in play for the party 64 are currently held by Labour. Combined with recent successive YouGov polls that have placed Reform ahead of both Labour and the Tories for the first time, that analysis has sent shockwaves through Westminster.
Of course, history offers cautionary tales. We have seen smaller parties get significant poll numbers before, only to fail at the ballot box. The SDP/Liberal alliance, for example, led in the polls in the early 1980s but never managed to convert that approval into real electoral success. Reform faces the same challenge. However, the party’s rising support is still a cause for concern for the two main parties, particularly in key battleground constituencies where dissatisfaction with the status quo is growing.
A source within Reform UK told me they believe that dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government will grow over time and drive voters into the party’s arms. If that happens, it could spell serious trouble for Labour. The rise of Reform has certainly unsettled some Labour MPs. I have been told about an informal group now meeting to work as a pressure group to counter the threat. This group consists of MPs who saw Reform come second or third in their constituencies and now view the party as a viable adversary. They are looking to engage directly with Downing Street to outflank Reform on issues such as immigration.
The government, for its part, is arguably already moving in that direction. Immigration is, along with the NHS, the joint second most important issue for voters behind the economy, according to a recent Ipsos poll, so it is not an issue the government can ignore. In recent days the Home Office has introduced new guidance that makes it nearly impossible for refugees who arrive in the UK via small boats to gain British citizenship. Under those new rules, anyone entering the UK illegally through a dangerous journey will typically be denied the chance to become a citizen. The move has drawn strong criticism from human rights groups and some Labour MPs and legal experts have even suggested it may violate the UN Refugee Convention, which prohibits countries from penalising asylum seekers based on their mode of entry.
Meanwhile, Labour has begun to test the waters with tougher rhetoric on immigration. In a recent campaign push, several local party groups ran Facebook adverts boasting about increased deportations under Starmer’s government. The ads, which stated, “Labour hits 5-year high in migrant removals” looked strikingly similar to Reform-style branding and, notably, did not include the official Labour party logo.
One Labour MP I spoke to was unimpressed with that approach. “We should not fight Reform on their issues,” they told me bluntly. “We will not win.” Their argument is that trying to outdo Reform on the issue of immigration is a losing battle. Instead, they believe Labour should focus on delivering improvements in key areas that matter to voters.
“If we get the NHS working better and grow the economy, all this Reform noise won’t mean a thing. If we focus on beating them at immigration, I don’t think it ends well,” they added.
Another MP highlighted what they saw as a deeper issue within Labour’s electoral strategy. They pointed out that much of Labour’s recent policy work has been focused on infrastructure projects such as improving transport links between Oxford and Cambridge and expanding Heathrow Airport. While those are important initiatives, they are unlikely to resonate with voters who are considering backing Reform.
“We need policies that people will feel and see in their home towns and their bank accounts,” they said. “If we are worried about losing voters to Reform, making it easier to travel between Oxford and Cambridge isn’t going to win them over.”
It poses an interesting question about what Labour’s focus should be and what the party’s best direction of travel is. Reform is a potential threat and finding the best way to combat that is likely to be a major challenge for Starmer’s time in office.
Despite having only five MPs at present, Reform’s influence should not be underestimated. The party’s presence in key electoral battlegrounds could have a significant impact, particularly if it continues to poll well in the run-up to the next general election. The fact that both the Tories and Labour are now realising that they could lose votes to Reform changes strategic calculations for both parties and we may very well be witnessing our political landscape changing in front of our eyes.
Shehab Khan is an award-winning presenter and political correspondent for ITV News.
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