Starmer has to forge a ‘special relationship’ with whoever wins the White House
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer two very different visions of America’s role in the world — the new UK government will have to prepare for both eventualities
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You might, quite rightly, feel all “electioned out”, but now it is time for the UK government to turn its focus to the US. It looks increasingly likely that Kamala Harris will be taking on Donald Trump to be the so-called leader of the free world. While you might be forgiven for thinking that all this has very little to do with us in the UK, the reality is far from it.
Our new prime minister, Keir Starmer, who has been in the job for less than a month, knows that his relationship with the UK’s closest ally will play a huge role in his premiership. His first step onto the international scene, the Nato summit earlier this month, was dominated by questions about Joe Biden, and whether the US president was too old to run for a second term.
As you would expect, Starmer has so far said he is willing and ready to work with whoever the US elects. But away from diplomatic niceties there are obvious reasons why some in Labour circles have made it clear they would prefer to work with a Democrat administration.
For months I was regularly told of the work that was being done by Labour, in particular the now foreign secretary, David Lammy, in building relationships with leading Democrats. I was told of regular visits and policy discussions between senior figures within both parties were happening ahead of the UK’s 4 July election. The Democrats are of course “from the same political family” as one Labour figure told me, and it is therefore slightly easier for the government to work with them.
But given the reality of US polling, which points to a tight race, Starmer and his team will be aware that Trump and the Republicans have more than just a fighting chance of moving back into the White House. I have been told on many occasions that Lammy has been tasked with building relationships with Republicans and some of the briefings we have had from Capitol Hill suggest that it has been going well.
A Trump presidency does however present some unique issues for Starmer. When it comes to foreign policy, Trump has repeatedly suggested he would reduce the amount of military support for Ukraine and alter the US’s support for Nato — both of which are at odds with the UK’s position. Given Europe’s committed support for Ukraine, a move like that may require Starmer to reassess the UK’s defence policy, which is a headache I suspect he could do without.
Then there is the fact that the Republicans have already shown they are more than willing to deviate from the usual diplomatic language one would expect about allies. Trump’s running mate for vice president, JD Vance, has already been vocal about his thoughts about both Labour and the UK, saying it could become the first “truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon” under the party. The suggestion that Islamists are gaining a foothold in some European countries is a common conspiracy theory in certain right-wing US political circles. Many people in the UK took offence to the comments , with the deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, saying she ‘does not recognise that characterisation”.
It is uncomfortable territory to say the least but an indication that politically there are some significant differences in opinion.
Then there’s the issue of personal relationships. Tony Blair was able to forge close ties to presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush. We know little about Starmer’s personal relationship with Harris, if there is one. We have seen him get on quite well with president Biden, joking with one another; and after the assassination attempt on Trump there was a brief phone call between Starmer and the Republican nominee, so it appears there is the beginnings of a relationship there too.
But we have had the chance to assess a Trump presidency before and his relationship with world leaders can be tumultuous. Theresa May, prime minister when Trump was initially president said she “never knew what to expect” and her closest allies mentioned the need to have long strategy discussions before any conversation with him. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, didn’t fare much better. While initially the two appeared to hit it off, their relationship deteriorated and at one point Trump accused Macron of being “nasty” for saying Nato was “brain dead”.
A lot of these personal issues stem from the unusual manner in which Trump conducts his foreign policy, which is fundamentally different from the norm of international diplomacy. A Harris presidency would likely follow a more traditional diplomatic approach. Senior figures within the Labour party are however adamant that Starmer is ready to deal with whichever approach he has to face and is well experienced to do so.
For now though, as Starmer has said, it is up to the US electorate to decide who they wish to put into the White House. While on paper it may appear that a Democratic candidate may be the one Labour would prefer, it seems the leadership is ready for a potential Trump presidency too.
Shehab Khan is an award-winning presenter and political correspondent for ITV News
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